alea iacta esto

That “Know” Moment

I sat on the train today as a warm feeling subdued me. In that moment, I had that “know” moment, that moment you “know” you’re going to be all right. You should know that I’m a big fan of chance – that life is a confluence of chances more so than Clotho’s deliberate spinning of fate. Anyway, I got home and (not so) accidentally stumbled right into this paragraph from Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking, Fast and Slow:

“Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be. We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecast the future, which fosters optimistic overconfidence. In terms of its consequences for decisions, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases. Because optimistic bias can be both a blessing and a risk, you should be both happy and wary if you are temperamentally optimistic.”

Should I be nervous?


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